El Niño and commercial property: winter 2026 to 2027

NOAA's outlook for December 2026 to February 2027

• Wetter than average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.²
• Warmer than average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska; near normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast, including Florida.²
• Drier than average conditions are favored for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West and some areas of the Great Lakes.²
• Drought is forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast.²

National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east, which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South.²

What past El Niño winters brought

El Niño's effects on US temperature and precipitation come mostly from October through March, NOAA wrote in June 2014. The most reliable is a wetter than average Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, seen in more than 80% of El Niño events in the 100 years before then.⁵

In California and the Southwest, the effect depends on strength. The two strongest events in the 60 years before 2014, 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998, brought much above median rainfall across all of California, with heavy rain, flooding and landslides, while some other strong events gave only small surpluses in the south of the state.⁵

Rain is not the only risk on the coast. USGS counts 2015 to 2016 as one of the three strongest El Niños on record, with 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998. That winter Southern California got 70% less rain than in the two big El Niños before it, but the waves were among the largest ever recorded, and most California beaches studied eroded past their historical extremes.⁶

In Florida, El Niño can shift the subtropical jet stream far enough south to lie over the peninsula, with stronger winds than normal and more wind shear, which raises the odds of an active spring severe weather season. The National Weather Service in Melbourne expected one in 1998 for that reason, and on February 22 to 23, 1998, seven significant tornadoes hit central Florida overnight.⁷

These patterns are odds, not certainties: no impact is assured in any El Niño, even the strongest.

Hail, tornadoes and hurricanes

Spring (March to May) tornadoes and hailstorms in the southern central US tend to be less frequent during El Niño and more frequent during La Niña, a 2015 study in Nature Geoscience found. El Niño weakens the surface winds that carry warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico over Texas and neighboring states.⁸

The El Niño or La Niña state of midwinter often lasts into spring, so it helps predict spring tornado and hail activity. The link for summer storms, when severe storms peak across much of the US, is less clear.

El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, mainly through stronger vertical wind shear, and to favor stronger activity in the central and eastern Pacific. NOAA wrote in May 2014 that in a high activity Atlantic era, such as the one in place since 1995, El Niño typically brings a near normal Atlantic season.⁹

Region by region

Flood insurance facts for the season

• Most business insurance does not cover flood damage.
• Under federal rules, the most NFIP building coverage available is $500,000 per building, both for nonresidential buildings and for other residential buildings, including multifamily buildings.¹¹
• NFIP contents coverage tops out at $500,000 for nonresidential property, such as a business's equipment, furniture and inventory, and at $100,000 for residential property.^3,12,11
• Building and contents coverage are typically bought separately and have separate deductibles.
• In many cases a new NFIP policy goes into effect 30 days after purchase, so a policy bought once storms arrive may not be in force in time.⁴
• Keep business records digitally, with backups, or away from the property. Detailed accounting receipts help the adjuster handle a flood claim quickly and accurately.

Some items are not covered by an NFIP policy no matter the cause of flooding, including property outside an insured building, such as landscaping, decks, fences and swimming pools, and financial losses caused by business interruption.³